I was watching the Golf Channel yesterday (Wednesday) morning, and the tournament commentators were discussing the upcoming Players Championship that starts today. They were talking about the tournament entrants, their recent poll of viewers, and who the viewers favored to win. They chose Tiger Woods to win, with odds of 7/1. WHY?Phil Mickelson is ranked second right now at the Players, with odds of his winning at 8/1. In my opinion, Phil should be favored to win, and not just slightly over Tiger.
If Mickelson wins this week’s tournament, which starts on Thursday, and Woods finishes outside the top five, Mickelson will become the No. 1 golfer in the world rankings, ending a five year reign for Woods.
The odds are a little closer this week than usual, but Woods is still favored to win the tournament this week. I do not understand why that is.
Woods won this event in 2001 and finished eighth a year ago, but he finished outside the top 20 the previous two times he competed in the tournament. Woods is coming off one of the worst outings he has had as a pro, as he missed the cut in the Quail Hollow Championship.
If it was up to me, I'd give Woods odds of winning this week closer to 25/1. Like I mentioned a few days ago, I don't think Woods is over his problems with the crowds yet. I think he is still worried about his image at this time, and wants to please the crowds after what he did to his wife, Elin, more than he thinks about winning.
Late yesterday the Golf channel commentators were still talking about Tiger's chances this week. After beating around the bush all day, Nick Faldo finally answered the question about Tiger's chances of winning the Players.
"Tiger is going to have problems this week."
I agree.
Great points. Given Tiger's track record at this tournament and the fact that he's clearly in a slump, it does seem silly to give him 7/1, the highest odds. Good analyses, Peter.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Rio.
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