Mickelson good or lucky?

"Phil Mickelson, would you prefer to be good or lucky?"

I stated yesterday that Phil Mickelson was going to be in trouble during Friday's round at Pebble Beach, because he teed off early on Thursday, when everyone who teed off late on Thursday faced windy, dry, bumpy greens, with many three-putt greens.

He teed off late on Friday, so he was going to face those same windy, dry, bumpy greens on Friday, and score worst than he did on Thursday, right? Wrong!

Pebble's winds died down on Friday, and the USGA decided to water the greens on Friday so they would not be criticized once again about the terrible greens by the likes of Tiger Woods! But when the USGA decides to do just that, they change the odds in favor of some players, in this case Mickelson, and against others.

The result? Phil putted on good greens, and shot the round of the tournament for the first two days. Lucky? Definitely!

Now they go into the weekend, where the low 60 players and ties, all within ten shots of each other, will battle it out in fairly the same weather conditions. No one should benefit from better playing conditions than any of the others, period.

So who is favored from here on in? Pebble is playing tough, and the USGA will no doubt place the pins in tougher spots, and let the greens dry out even more. The rough is growing longer every day, so overall conditions will be tougher for the weekend.

Now the game will move from physical skill to the mental side of the game, and I have stated before who has the mental toughness on tour, and who does not have it.

Just look at the players who have made the cut for the weekend, and pick the ones who have been there before, and stayed the course to reach the winner's circle.

That will decide who wins this year's U.S. Open.