Yesterday I asked the question, "Who will win the U.S.Open at Pebble Beach in two weeks?"I made the argument that weather may very well determine the outcome of the tournament, because tour players differ in their strengths and weaknesses in their games. Someone who can drive it longer than most of the field will excel if the course is wet, for example. The ball won't roll, so shorter players will not prevail by getting their usual roll, while the longer hitters will fly the ball to their target without the ball rolling into trouble.
Today I tried to learn what the weather is expected to be starting June 14. Not an easy thing to do when very few weather forecasters get the next day's weather forecast correct!
I found a golf blog that talked about Pebble Beach and the Open, and it said the weather was wet, but it was talking about the Open being this week, not next week. I tried to check the date, and it only showed the time of the day, not the date or the year!
Then I went to Yahoo Weather, and it showed fairly clear and dry for the next ten days, so I assume that is the correct information.
If the weather is windy, lower hitters will have the advantage. Mickelson hits the ball high, so wind will hurt him. Tiger and a number of the new, young players can drive it low when they have to, so windy conditions will give them an advantage.
As you probably know, the PGA tour flip-flops the tee times on Thursday and Friday, to try to make it fair for all players, before they cut to the low 70 and ties for the weekend. If a player tees off early on Thursday, he will tee off late on Friday, for example. That supposedly balances out for all players, but it won't be fair if the weather changes from one day to the next.
Wet conditions also give an early tee time the advantage, because those players can putt on smoother greens compared to the afternoon players putting on greens with 1) raised cups from the weight of the early players pushing down on the green surface from six inches to several feet away from the cups, and 2) spike marks from the early players.
I have gone out on a limb by already predicting that Phil Mickelson will not win the Open, ten days before the first tee time, but that is because of the driver and putter he has to play due to his contract with Callaway.
Trying to predict who will win any particular tournament weeks in advance is something the tour media tries to do, but not knowing what the weather will be at tee time makes it impossible in my opinion. Believe it or not, most tour players do not have the ability to change their swing and ball flight when the weather dictates it is necessary.
The players who are most hurt when the weather changes are the players who are under the more stringent contracts to play particular clubs, or a particular ball, and are not fee to change with the conditions. One ball, for example, flies lower than other balls, so it is better to play the low flying ball in the wind.
How will Justin Rose, last week's winner at the Memorial, play at the Open? I have heard rumors he is not even entered!
As close as Lee Westwood has come to winning other majors I believe this is his year to win the US Open
ReplyDeleteSideswiped - That's a good choice for a winner, if Lee can finally keep his attitude positive down the stretch! Along the same line, Tim Clark is a good bet, and he has finally come through at the Players.
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